USOIL setup

08.07.2026: US Oil moved into the M Gap exactly as suggested in the previous update, fully filling it. After a successful retest of the white dashed line, I entered another long position which, at the time of writing, is trading at approximately a 1:5 risk-to-reward. The move has been extremely impulsive and, as often happens, it was "justified" by the news that the U.S. revoked Iran's license to sell oil. Following such a strong rally, price is now trading into a major congestion area around $75–76, making the next few hours particularly important. I'll be watching closely to see how the market reacts. Given the current context, I prefer to take partial profits with the position up by nearly 100%, while monitoring for a potential reaction if price revisits the WBB around $73 or, in the more conservative scenario, the $70 area, where the previously broken supply zone could now act as a continuation breaker.

14.07.2026: US OIL followed the projection of the last update, reacting from the daily + multitimeframe supply and going for the "reaload area" in the $70 from where it has literally exploded producing an almost +14% move. At the same time, the supply that before provided this correction, now has been compltely melted creating a 12H BOS and this is good for a potential continuation, thus the levels to watch for now are: - $76.60/$75.50 - $73.70/$74.80 Both might provide a good reaction and another reload in a context in which I continue to remain positive and bullish on this HTF swing play. At the moment it's important to pay attention to the $81 level (12H supply) and also the potential fill of the gap in the $82/83 zone, these are in my opinion at least "partial take profit areas" or, if someone wants, hedge short ones. $80 remains a psychological level, so if US OIL is able to consolidate above ignoring the "reload levels" below, even better. So far, the trade is producing a fantastic +20% from my entry level and I'm trimming some profits here with the main idea of continuation.

23.07.2026: US oil continued its bullish advance. The gap area where, from a technical perspective, I was looking for a correction, did produce a brief pullback, but buyers quickly regained control. The daily candle ultimately closed back inside the range, and, more importantly, the July 21 opening was exceptionally strong. Price has now reached one of the most important supply zones, which was also the 3rdTP target projected from the monthly gap around $68. This is a key area for several reasons. First, it coincides with an important psychological price level. Second, the distribution range between May 27 and June 11 represents the primary technical resistance for crude oil. For anyone still holding long positions, the plan remains the same: continue taking profits according to the strategy. At the same time, this area is worth monitoring for a potential short setup, especially since it also aligns with the 2D supply zone. The bearish setup would be invalidated by a daily close above the current swing high around $93. Keep in mind that price often sweeps previous highs before reversing, so intraday moves above the high would not necessarily invalidate the setup. What matters is a confirmed daily close above that level. Regardless, the trade has been highly successful. From the monthly gap entry, the move has generated gains of more than 35% reflecting an exceptionally strong directional impulse. Ideally, I would still like to see a healthy pullback. I'm not sure whether price will revisit levels below $78, with the $74–76 area being the most attractive retracement zone. However, the current trend is extremely impulsive, making a retest of the $79–80 area the more realistic and attractive reload zone. If we do see a correction of roughly 11–15%, we'll reassess the next long opportunity from there. This view is also supported by our 24-year seasonality study. Although the chart itself is based on historical data, it has provided remarkably reliable signals so far. As a confluence factor, it suggests continued strength from July into August and in between a correction, followed by another bullish impulse. Let's see how the market develops.

22.09.2026: US OIL went down from the 2D supply correcting a -20% into the ideal retracement zone highlighted in late July. The overall plan was to accumulate/enter a long position in the $75/76 zone that, over time, should have led to another macro impulse heading toward the $100s, as final TP. US OIL picked liquidity inside the area and then started to create the impulse breaking above the $80 psychological level and re-accumulating before the final leg-up, which has been "helped" by the news on war between U.S and Iran, hitting all take profit levels. Took out 20% at TP3 and another 20% at TP4 + another 10% when I started to see a correction from the HTF supply level at $100. Still holding the remaining 50% of the position that it's under trailing mode and will be cut or held depending on the next price action beahavior, but I consider this trade concluded and everything that will come next will be a bonus.